It Was So Dangerous They Called It “Noah’s Ark”

In my New York neighborhood, you traveled in pairs or you didn’t travel at all. It was pretty good advice then and if you apply that same caution when playing poker it’s still pretty good advice. If we take a look at most of the so called “bad beats” on internet cyber felts around the globe, there is certainly a common thread: long shots!

For some unexplained reason (other than a continuous thrill-seeking adventure), a great number of both beginning and veteran players rely heavily upon draws and although some find success, and a certain percentage do, the “majority” of these attempts will end in failure. If continued, the long shot draw will negatively impact your stack and bankroll in a very short period of time.

So what is the constant fascination with the “draw?” Let’s take a closer look at the unattractive odds associated with a draw and try to determine what could happen and what mistakes are made due to the lure of the big flush draw.

The following examples are the percentages and odds when holding flush cards:

“You will hold suited cards before the Flop…23.53% (odds are 3.25-1)”
“If you hold suited cards, a Flush will Flop….0.84% (odds are 118-1)”
“If you hold two suited cards, two or more of that suit will Flop….11.79% (odds are 7.48 to 1)”
“If you have four parts of a Flush after the Flop, you will make it….34.97% (odds are 1.88 to 1)”

Note: statistics used provided in Doyle Brunson’s “Super System” page 579.

Those numbers should convince you that the flush draw is the same as pulling a short straw. Think about the consistent advantage of holding any “pair, especially a quality pair,” against opponents who have a tendency to play the long shots. They always need to improve their holdings while your pair will win without improvement and often times your hand becomes invincible if the pair improves significantly.

Quality pairs (usually associated with group 1 type hands), have the best chance against opponents playing weaker drawing hands and those opponents who overvalue mid and small pairs when facing a significant pre-flop raise. Again, checking the odds, anyone with a pair of eights that over pays to see a flop, has a long shot of improving their hand (about 11.76% or 7.51 to 1), so they are a huge underdog. The lure is the “implied odds,” should they hit their card, but looking at their chances, you can clearly see why contemplating calling a raise, may not be a profitable move.

This article and author are not advocating never draw, quite the contrary. I believe you should have a full awareness of your underdog status and pick spots where you have a better opportunity to make some money; where pot odds are favorable, where you can be aggressive with a draw as a semi-bluff against a smaller field of opponents, where you can see flops cheaply (and enjoy the true benefits of implied odds on later rounds), and when you have to make a stand (the end game).

Speaking of the end game, you cannot allow yourself to just blind down and out, you must make a stand. Draws fit into that equation, although not at the top of my list, they are on the list, although I’d rather put my last few dollars in the pot with any pair, any ace, or any two painted cards. However, there are some situations that dictate playing a hand like 10-9 suited or not. Hands as weak as 5-4 and yes, even two suited cards that don’t make straights (as the draws I just mentioned), can with luck make a flush. You may get lucky and hit the high card (although with a weak kicker) and have top pair, make two pair, or if very lucky playing a K2s, hit a couple of deuces. The main point is you must make a stand and this is where “the long-shot” becomes more desperation than determination.

These same cards, found early in a tournament, frankly are unplayable and should go in the muck a large percentage of the time. There are exceptions; blind play, stealing, bluffing, and of course when you know you can manipulate your opponent. Key to this decision making process is your ability to “put” players on hands, knowing their style of play, and of course, how they perceive your overall play (aggressive, solid, passive, like a rock, weak, or your run of the mill calling station).

It’s my contention that draws are losing propositions overall, but skillfully played, can be profitable. Knowing your opponent, having a good table image, and picking the best spots to draw, all add up to a recipe for success and will result in many more wins and much better payouts.

While you are acquiring these skills to combat normally losing propositions never forget the power of “pairs.” Remember, when at the tables, what was good enough for Noah and my old neighborhood is still a good guideline for you and me!